On Friday, gas prices at the National Balancing Point (NBP) continued to fall, influenced by ongoing bearish factors such as an influx of LNG supply and mild temperatures. The price curve recorded losses, and the front end experienced the most significant declines. The Summer-25 front season contract dropped below 100p/therm (3.41p/kWh) for the first time since November 8.
What does this mean?
Reduced demand, caused by unseasonably mild temperatures, largely drove the initial price drop. According to data from National Gas, reliance on combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) plants plummeted by over 58% compared to the previous gas day. This demand reduction further intensified downward pressure on near-curve prices.
Supply-side factors also played a role in the price movement. An active liquefied natural gas (LNG) schedule eased supply concerns. Shipping signals show that up to seven laden LNG vessels will arrive by the end of the year. Among these is the vessel Cool Rider, which is set to offload U.S. volumes later today.
Summary
As of Monday morning, the bearish trend persists, with the Summer-25 contract last trading around 2p/therm (0.068p/kWh) lower than its previous settlement. This continued decline highlights the impact of both weakened demand and robust supply conditions on the market.
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