Demand Factors Push Gas Prices Down

Weekly Market Report

strong wind ouput reduced gas-fired demand

NBP gas prices sharply declined on Friday, losing the gains made during the past week. The December 2024 front-month contract saw the most significant losses. According to ICE data, it fell around 4.8p/therm (0.16p/kWh) from its previous close. This decline was driven by strong LNG storage levels and a drop in gas-fired demand.

What does this mean?

A strong outlook for LNG supply primarily drove the decline in prices. Shipping data shows that up to 10 LNG vessels will dock at UK terminals within the next week. This is supported by the arrival of the Grazyna Gesicka at the Isle of Grain terminal on Friday morning.

Demand factors also played a role in the bearish trend. UK system demand dropped from 338 mcm to 320 mcm on Friday, as reported by National Gas. Stronger wind generation during the session reduced gas-fired (CCGT) demand. National Grid reported a 22.5% drop in gas demand compared to Thursday as a result.

Summary

Despite Friday’s drop, gas prices opened significantly higher this Monday morning. Both front-month and front-season contracts were trading around 3p/therm (0.1p/kWh) above their last settlement, signalling potential volatility ahead.

 

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