On Monday, gas prices at the National Balancing Point (NBP) increased. Concerns about Russian gas supply to Europe and strong market demand drove this shift. The sharpest increase was in the December 2024 contract. It spiked by around 4.5p/therm (0.16p/kWh) from its previous level, reflecting short-term uncertainties in the market.
What does this mean?
The supply landscape tightened further due to maintenance at a key UK gas storage facility in Alton, East Hampshire. Humbly Grove REMIT reported taking 7 million cubic meters (mcm) of withdrawal capacity offline for planned repairs. These repairs are expected to last until Thursday evening. Meanwhile, the BBL Interconnector pipeline, which transports gas from the Netherlands to Great Britain, saw flows of 1.4 mcm during the day, helping to support UK demand.
Adding to the complexity, the British system operator, National Gas, recently shared a winter outlook report. It suggests that EU gas exports to the UK could rise as winter progresses, potentially stabilising supply.
Internationally, tensions over Russian troop movements also influenced market sentiment. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that around 50,000 Russian troops have moved into the Kursk region near Ukraine. This is critical for Europe because the Sudzha pipeline in Ukraine is the last active route for Russian gas exports to the EU. Any escalation of conflict here could disrupt supply.
Summary
This Tuesday morning, gas prices showed a slight decline. The Summer 2025 contract opened at 1.5p/therm (0.05p/kWh) lower than the previous day, indicating some market softening amid difficult geopolitical and supply factors.
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